The Global Aluminium Market Outlook to 2027£1,695.00
China which is the key player in the aluminium market has been slashing its aluminium capacity to help stabilise the market as well as reduce pollution. It is estimated that China will cut around 3-4 million tonnes of aluminium capacity this year. This may result in tighter market balance for some time and increase prices. The current price surge is more driven by non-market forces, though a downward price correction is expected due to weak demand and overproduction. We expect that China’s capacity closures will help in better market fundamentals in the short term. However, once the environmental compliance procedure completed, the new and cost efficient supply growth will substantially increase, which may impact the global aluminium market.
The current US administration understands the Chinese origin materials as a significant threat to its industry and is planning to limit it through tariff and other trade barriers arguing to protect its domestic industry and create jobs. However, we expect that this will likely to impact the automotive sector in the US and will result in higher production costs. Aluminium is not the exception, and other materials such as steel have also been the target of rising trade barriers. If these proposals materialised then, it would result in a global trade war.
The global aluminium demand is still weak but will show some strength over the next ten years. The automotive sector has remained the key driver behind the growth. Most OEMs and auto body producers are located in developed markets so consequently the automotive sector dominates aluminium market in these markets. The usage of aluminium in the automotive sector is growing as aluminium is lighter than steel which makes it more ideal for vehicles. Light vehicles improve fuel efficiency, reduce carbon dioxide emission and are environment-friendly. The current wave of substituting steel with aluminium is mainly supported by the EU emissions scheme and the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) regulation in the US.
The Global Transparent Barrier Packaging Film Market out to 2022£1,695.00
The global transparent barrier packaging film market is expected to perform better than some its rival packaging. The growth will mainly be supported by continued consumer focus on better quality products. Consumers are now increasingly demanding visual transparency of food products, owing to the increasing health concerns and awareness about food hygiene. The rising consumer awareness has resulted in consumers and manufacturers favouring transparent barrier film packaging in both, food and non-food products, a trend that is expected to follow in the coming years.
Increased regulations concerning sustainable packaging have managed to raise environmental awareness resulting in consumers increasingly demanding environmentally friendly products. Manufacturers are now forced to look into sustainable, transparent film packaging applications in an attempt to gain consumer approval.
Going forward, Commodity Inside anticipates the growth would be supported mainly by emerging markets. Food sectors such as processed meat, dairy and snacks would continue to be the major end users of transparent barrier packaging films. Demand for transparent packaging film in other non-food sectors such as personal care, pet food and pharmaceutical packaging is anticipated to pick up greater momentum providing better opportunities for expansion for market players into these sectors.
Global Steel Sheet Products Market 2017-2022
It is a difficult time for steel producers as they have been struggling to improve their margins and defending their market share. Protectionism is also on the rise as manufacturers, particularly in matured markets in Europe and North America, are facing fierce competition from cheap imports from elsewhere. Antidumping trade cases and Section 232 investigation are some of the latest measures the affected markets have taken to protect their industries. For instance, the USA has more than 190 tariffs, new laws and a federal investigation on imported steel and the EU has 39 antidumping or anti subsidy measures on steel, with 17 against China.
Despite high marginal costs and low capacity utilisation in most markets, millions tonnes of sheet capacities are still coming online every year globally, further worsening the market conditions. The demand-side story is not much different; automotive producers are opting for alternative materials such as aluminium and carbon composites to keep the costs and body-in-white down. Lacklustre mining and construction markets to some extent have also been affecting the yellow goods sales. There are also various trends and developments in energy and infrastructure markets which are having some impact on the sheet market.
Currently, most companies are cutting their costs on market research for various reasons. However, in such weak and fast changing market conditions, it is essential for the steel industry to keep informed about both short and long-term future direction in the market. Our aim is to provide knowledge to our clients and value for their money. Therefore, this report is devised in a unique way, that unlike other reports in the market, it provides both short and long terms analysis under only one subscription. Moreover, it also provides analysis for downstream industries, which our competitors lack
Global Automotive Cyber Security Market outlook to 2027£1,695.00
The automotive sector will see significant changes over the next ten years where connectivity will be one of the pivotal attributes changing the face of the sector. With the rise in connected cars, the level of automation will also grow in tandem. Connectivity will become a norm and provide renewed growth to the automotive sector, though at the same time it will make vehicles vulnerable to cyber attacks.
Vehicles are increasingly becoming vulnerable to hacking as they are interacting with others vehicles and devices. Consequently, this has opened new venues for cyber security companies, and they are penetrating quite rapidly in the automotive market. Hacking a vehicle can stake human lives as well as brand reputations. One of the prominent examples was Fiat Chrysler when it recalled 1.4 million vehicles in 2015 after its Jeep was hacked remotely through the entertainment system.
The global automotive cyber security market is expected to see robust growth over the next ten years. Some of the major drivers behind the growth will be stringent security and safety regulations, increased demand for connectivity and development of autonomous vehicles. Meanwhile, growth is likely to shift from the US to China.
Commodity Inside understands that demand for automotive cyber security is at its nascent stage and has an enormous growth potential. The automotive cyber security technology will enhance existing security features and help developing new secure solutions. Automakers are planning to introduce fully autonomous vehicles by 2021, which will take the demand for automotive cyber security to the zenith. We expect high M&A activity and emergence of new cyber security companies in the market.
In the meantime, the expected high growth and rising adoption of autonomous vehicle technologies have also opened new opportunities for high-tech companies. Intel has recently acquired Mobileye, an automotive advanced driver assistance and collision avoidance technology company. Both have already been collaborating with BMW on driverless cars. The acquisition shows Intel’s plans for the automotive sector, particularly autonomous vehicles. Intel has already penetrated into the automotive cyber security through the acquisition of McAfee in 2011.
Global Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X) Communications Market out to 2027£1,695.00
The global vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communications market is expected to see significant growth over the next ten years. Some of the major drivers behind the growth will be stringent safety regulations, increased demand for connectivity and development of autonomous vehicles. Meanwhile, growth will shift from North America and Western Europe to Asia, especially China.
The V2X market has evolved through a raft of regulations, and government and private investments. It will see further legislations and renewed market growth on the back of rapid adoption of V2V and V2I communication technologies.
Commodity Inside understands that demand for automotive connectivity is at its embryonic stage and has an enormous growth potential. V2X communication technologies will enhance existing safety features and help developing new applications. With automakers planning to introduce fully autonomous vehicles by 2021, V2X will be one of the major beneficiaries and will see a surge in sales.
The deployment of 5G cellular technology will also put pressure on the existing dedicated short-range communications (DSRC) technology. However, both technologies would have limitations, so both will continue to be used over the next ten years. The 5G technology will open new opportunities for big data and big data analytics, allowing the fastest transmission of the vast amount of live data.
The expected high growth and rising adoption have also opened new opportunities for high-tech companies. Vehicles are increasingly becoming vulnerable to hacking as they are interacting with others vehicles and devices. Consequently, this has opened new venues for cyber security companies which are penetrating quite rapidly in the automotive market.
A Ten Year Strategic Outlook for the North American Automotive Market£1,978.00
The North American light vehicle market is on the verge of confronting significant changes which will lead the industry to a very precarious condition. The once stable and evolving industry is now getting ready for a major overhaul which can simultaneously create threats and opportunities for the regional automakers. The US president Donald Trump made a number of pledges during his election campaigns related to trade and manufacturing. Some of his rhetoric was directly related to the automotive sector which included 35% tariffs on imported vehicles, bringing jobs back to the US, border adjustment tax and severe consequences for the auto investors outside the US.
Initially, the epicentre of automotive trade war rhetoric was limited to Mexico, though later on Mr. Trump also lambasted against Germany and Japan blaming for currency undervaluation. Before taking the oath, it appeared that his elections pledges would not materialise; now it is the inverse. So, taking the underlying premise of his rhetoric, the question is how much is achievable without disturbing the very fabric of the automotive industry. Unlike, the construction industry (where Mr Trump has quite extensive experience), the automotive industry is highly global and integrated, which depends on a very convoluted supply chain structure. Most of the auto parts cross the US borders few times before ending up in a Mexican/Canadian assembly plant. The same apply to the US car makers where a sheer portion of the auto parts is imported, which would also defy the government “Buy America” rule in strict terms.
The new US administration seems committed to supporting the country automotive industry, likely through protectionist measures, incentives and cajoling. This can help increasing the capacity utilisation domestically and lure further investment announcements. However, any non-market driven investment decisions by OEMs can bear significant consequences in the medium to long term. There would likely be some additional increment in the US production in the short term on the back of curbing imports, which may be at the expense of high marginal costs and distortions in the regional automotive supply chain.
Mexico sources most auto parts and automotive steel from the US, so any changes in duties on either side can impact the regional supply chain. Therefore, revising NAFTA through imposing tariffs on Mexico would take its toll on the automotive industry, regardless of whether these new tariffs are agreed mutually between the members’ states. We understand that Mexican vehicles’ exports to the US are dominated by B and C category cars, where the profit margins are already thin. So, any imposition of tariffs or taxes can directly be passed to end users. Moreover, there is also less scope for a significant rise in production of these categories cars in the US due to limited capacity. Buyers would also have less room for substituting B and C cars with high-end vehicles such as SUVs due to constrained consumer surplus. Consequently, there would be a substantial loss of sales and delay in buying decisions.
Commodity Inside ascertains that the overall US production utilisation is currently at high levels. So, beyond a certain threshold, any additional demand created due to trade diversion would be hard to meet without additional investment domestically. Building new assembly plants or relocation would not be feasible in the short run, and any such attempts would be untenable without understanding the long term dynamics.