Global Automotive Cyber Security Market outlook to 2027£1,695.00
The automotive sector will see significant changes over the next ten years where connectivity will be one of the pivotal attributes changing the face of the sector. With the rise in connected cars, the level of automation will also grow in tandem. Connectivity will become a norm and provide renewed growth to the automotive sector, though at the same time it will make vehicles vulnerable to cyber attacks.
Vehicles are increasingly becoming vulnerable to hacking as they are interacting with others vehicles and devices. Consequently, this has opened new venues for cyber security companies, and they are penetrating quite rapidly in the automotive market. Hacking a vehicle can stake human lives as well as brand reputations. One of the prominent examples was Fiat Chrysler when it recalled 1.4 million vehicles in 2015 after its Jeep was hacked remotely through the entertainment system.
The global automotive cyber security market is expected to see robust growth over the next ten years. Some of the major drivers behind the growth will be stringent security and safety regulations, increased demand for connectivity and development of autonomous vehicles. Meanwhile, growth is likely to shift from the US to China.
Commodity Inside understands that demand for automotive cyber security is at its nascent stage and has an enormous growth potential. The automotive cyber security technology will enhance existing security features and help developing new secure solutions. Automakers are planning to introduce fully autonomous vehicles by 2021, which will take the demand for automotive cyber security to the zenith. We expect high M&A activity and emergence of new cyber security companies in the market.
In the meantime, the expected high growth and rising adoption of autonomous vehicle technologies have also opened new opportunities for high-tech companies. Intel has recently acquired Mobileye, an automotive advanced driver assistance and collision avoidance technology company. Both have already been collaborating with BMW on driverless cars. The acquisition shows Intel’s plans for the automotive sector, particularly autonomous vehicles. Intel has already penetrated into the automotive cyber security through the acquisition of McAfee in 2011.
Global Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X) Communications Market out to 2027£1,695.00
The global vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communications market is expected to see significant growth over the next ten years. Some of the major drivers behind the growth will be stringent safety regulations, increased demand for connectivity and development of autonomous vehicles. Meanwhile, growth will shift from North America and Western Europe to Asia, especially China.
The V2X market has evolved through a raft of regulations, and government and private investments. It will see further legislations and renewed market growth on the back of rapid adoption of V2V and V2I communication technologies.
Commodity Inside understands that demand for automotive connectivity is at its embryonic stage and has an enormous growth potential. V2X communication technologies will enhance existing safety features and help developing new applications. With automakers planning to introduce fully autonomous vehicles by 2021, V2X will be one of the major beneficiaries and will see a surge in sales.
The deployment of 5G cellular technology will also put pressure on the existing dedicated short-range communications (DSRC) technology. However, both technologies would have limitations, so both will continue to be used over the next ten years. The 5G technology will open new opportunities for big data and big data analytics, allowing the fastest transmission of the vast amount of live data.
The expected high growth and rising adoption have also opened new opportunities for high-tech companies. Vehicles are increasingly becoming vulnerable to hacking as they are interacting with others vehicles and devices. Consequently, this has opened new venues for cyber security companies which are penetrating quite rapidly in the automotive market.
A Ten Year Strategic Outlook for the North American Automotive Market£1,978.00
The North American light vehicle market is on the verge of confronting significant changes which will lead the industry to a very precarious condition. The once stable and evolving industry is now getting ready for a major overhaul which can simultaneously create threats and opportunities for the regional automakers. The US president Donald Trump made a number of pledges during his election campaigns related to trade and manufacturing. Some of his rhetoric was directly related to the automotive sector which included 35% tariffs on imported vehicles, bringing jobs back to the US, border adjustment tax and severe consequences for the auto investors outside the US.
Initially, the epicentre of automotive trade war rhetoric was limited to Mexico, though later on Mr. Trump also lambasted against Germany and Japan blaming for currency undervaluation. Before taking the oath, it appeared that his elections pledges would not materialise; now it is the inverse. So, taking the underlying premise of his rhetoric, the question is how much is achievable without disturbing the very fabric of the automotive industry. Unlike, the construction industry (where Mr Trump has quite extensive experience), the automotive industry is highly global and integrated, which depends on a very convoluted supply chain structure. Most of the auto parts cross the US borders few times before ending up in a Mexican/Canadian assembly plant. The same apply to the US car makers where a sheer portion of the auto parts is imported, which would also defy the government “Buy America” rule in strict terms.
The new US administration seems committed to supporting the country automotive industry, likely through protectionist measures, incentives and cajoling. This can help increasing the capacity utilisation domestically and lure further investment announcements. However, any non-market driven investment decisions by OEMs can bear significant consequences in the medium to long term. There would likely be some additional increment in the US production in the short term on the back of curbing imports, which may be at the expense of high marginal costs and distortions in the regional automotive supply chain.
Mexico sources most auto parts and automotive steel from the US, so any changes in duties on either side can impact the regional supply chain. Therefore, revising NAFTA through imposing tariffs on Mexico would take its toll on the automotive industry, regardless of whether these new tariffs are agreed mutually between the members’ states. We understand that Mexican vehicles’ exports to the US are dominated by B and C category cars, where the profit margins are already thin. So, any imposition of tariffs or taxes can directly be passed to end users. Moreover, there is also less scope for a significant rise in production of these categories cars in the US due to limited capacity. Buyers would also have less room for substituting B and C cars with high-end vehicles such as SUVs due to constrained consumer surplus. Consequently, there would be a substantial loss of sales and delay in buying decisions.
Commodity Inside ascertains that the overall US production utilisation is currently at high levels. So, beyond a certain threshold, any additional demand created due to trade diversion would be hard to meet without additional investment domestically. Building new assembly plants or relocation would not be feasible in the short run, and any such attempts would be untenable without understanding the long term dynamics.
A Strategic Outlook for the Global Medium and Heavy Vehicles Market to 2027£2,678.00
The global medium and heavy commercial vehicle market will see numerous developments in the long run such as shifts in market growths, changes in demand fundamentals, environmental regulations and technological developments. As a consequence, demand for commercial vehicles will see some structural changes affecting the proportion of medium and heavy vehicles in the market. Moreover, fleet management will experience see some significant changes which would have direct implications on operations and costs.
In the short-run, demand for medium and heavy commercial vehicles in North America, Europe and Asia is expected to drive the global sales. Infrastructure investments, industrialisation, and increasing logistic activities particularly in Asia will be some major drivers behind the growth.
Telematics solutions will open new areas of growth and development in the commercial vehicle market. The growing influence of technology in the automotive industry has opened new revenue streams for OEMs and aftermarket providers, though at the same time appealing new entrants. For instance, Goodyear, which is a tire and rubber company, is now looking to penetrate in the telematics market by developing a predictive platform-based business model.
Commodity Inside automotive analyst Sergej Gavrilov writes “We believe that increasing demand for vehicles tracking and fuel efficiency in combination with growing cost pressure will push fleet operators to use telematics. Furthermore, roads and safety regulations will also drive demand for telematics in commercial fleets. We understand that the increased demand for wireless connectivity creates new opportunities not only for OEMs but the whole commercial vehicles ecosystem”
Stringent fuel economy and emissions regulations will continue to drive the light vehicle strategy and result in demand for more lightweight materials. Commodity Inside anticipates that the weight of an average heavy commercial vehicle will reduce approximately 8% over the next ten years. With the decline in vehicle weight, the materials mix in medium and heavy commercial vehicles will also change. Steel will continue to remain its dominance in the commercial vehicle sector, though will lose some share to alternative materials such as aluminium, plastic and composites.
The Global Light Vehicle Market Outlook to 2026£3,378.00
The global conventional light vehicle market is expected to go through significant changes over the next ten years. In the backdrop of economic uncertainties, tougher emission standards, electric mobility and stiffening car ownership regulations, vehicles sales growth will remain restrained. Meanwhile, growth will also be shifting from matured markets to developing and emerging markets.
Commodity Inside understands that consumer preferences will continue to grow for sport utility vehicles (SUVs) followed by compact (C) and subcompact (B) segments. In addition, the concept of mobility itself will change substantially, whilst vehicles will be increasingly becoming connected, autonomous and shared. Almost all the major OEMs have announced their plans for autonomous vehicles. The rising influence of technology in the automotive industry has opened new revenue streams for OEMs and components suppliers, though at the same time appealing new entrants. Apple has now publically revealed its plans for penetrating the autonomous vehicles market by asking the US highways regulator to promote fair competition between new entrants and established manufacturers.
The increasing regulations to mitigate emission and strengthen fuel economy standards will likely to result reductions in vehicle weight. Commodity Inside ascertains that curb weight of an average light vehicle will decline around 9% by the end of 2026. This will significantly impact material compositions in the automotive industry. Steel which makes up a significant part of the total mass will forgo some of its share to competing materials particularly aluminium and plastics. However, steel producers are also expecting to introduce new high-grade steel. For instance, ArcelorMittal is planning to launch new automotive steel grades next year by expanding its portfolio of third generation advanced high strength steel (3G AHSS), which will help OEMs to reduce the weight of body-in-white.
Commodity Inside automotive analyst Sergej Gavrilov writes “We believe that steel will maintain its stronghold in the automotive industry due to relatively low cost and favourable technical specifications. Moreover, some car segments are quite price sensitive and buyers will be reluctant to pay a premium for lighter version models, consequently resisting the use of advanced lightweight materials such as carbon fibre composites.”
A Ten Year Strategic Outlook for the Global Electric Vehicle Market£1,978.00
The global automotive industry has been on the verge of significant changes. The industry has already been targeted by high environmental standards and stiff regulations due to its substantial share of the global emissions. However, the changes the industry is currently passing through are beyond the scope of environment. Amongst others, the emergence of electric vehicles is set to reconstitute the whole automotive industry.
The impact from electric vehicle adoption has already started changing the automotive industry landscape. Presently, EVs account for merely 1% of global vehicle sales, though its share is anticipated to jump considerably over the next ten year. So far, financial incentives and stiffening regulations have supported EVs sales in North America, Europe and Asia. As sales have started tractions, almost all major car producers jumped on the bandwagon and announced their future EVs models.
Commodity Inside anticipates that EV charging infrastructure will also see a phenomenal growth over the coming years driven by both residential and commercial markets. Potential risks and opportunities will impact OEMs and raw materials suppliers. For instance, Lithium, which is an essential component in the EV rechargeable battery, has already benefited in terms of prices. Moreover, we are also expecting structural shifts in market shares of polymers, aluminium, steel, copper, glass etc in the EV market going forward.
Commodity Inside automotive analyst Sergej Gavrilov writes “There will be reductions in the car curb weight going forward despite installations of new hardware and features in the car, whereas Autonomous Driving Technologies (ADT) will account for the largest share of the total new additional weight. Most car producers plan to introduce fully autonomous vehicles by 2021 and start mass production by 2025.”